Seasonality and Climatic Factors Associated With Human Rhinovirus/Enterovirus Nasopharyngeal Sample Positivity on Oahu, Hawai'i, 2016-2019.

Abstract

Globally, human rhinoviruses/enteroviruses (HRVs/ENTs), indistinguishable on many widely available molecular platforms, are among the leading causes of the common cold. Geographic and climatic factors impact the peak activity of these viruses. In temperate climates, the peak activity of HRV occurs during autumn and spring whereas that of ENT occurs during autumn and summer. Both viruses are thought to peak during the rainy season in tropical climates like Hawai'i; however, data remain limited. We describe HRV/ENT seasonality and evaluate the climatic factors associated with peak activity among respiratory viral samples processed on Oahu, Hawai'i. We conducted a retrospective analysis of all respiratory specimens submitted to Tripler Army Medical Center for multiplex polymerase chain reaction testing between May 2016 and May 2019. Among HRV/ENT-positive samples, we recorded the month and year of positivity. Summative monthly positive detection was calculated with peak months above the mean. Associations between temperature, precipitation levels, relative humidity, and wind speed by week and the number of positive samples for HRV/ENT were evaluated using Poisson regression. This analysis was conducted via IRB exempt protocol number 19R18. During our study period, there were 7,143 nasopharyngeal respiratory samples sent for multiplex polymerase chain reaction testing, with 1,572 positive for HRV/ENT (22%). Nineteen percent of respiratory samples positive for HRV/ENT were additionally positive for one or more respiratory pathogens. The majority of HRV/ENT-positive samples arose from children < 5 years of age (n = 959, 61%). Peak months were February, March, May, August, November, and December. After controlling for lagged count and year, average wind speed was the only climatic factor significantly associated with HRV/ENT sample positivity. The peak monthly activity of HRV/ENT was similar to temperate climates with the exception of peak activity in February. Unlike other tropical climates, lower wind speed was associated with increased weekly HRV/ENT positivity and should be further explored as a transmission factor. Our study contributes to understanding the annual variability of HRV/ENT activity in tropical environments, which can inform clinician expectations regarding respiratory viral symptomatology in this region.