Seasonal to Multi-Decadal Shoreline Change on a Reef-Fringed Beach

Abstract

This study investigates the shoreline dynamics of a Caribbean reef-lined beach by utilizing a long-term satellite dataset spanning 75 years and a short-term, high-frequency dataset captured by a fixed camera over 3 years. An array of statistical methods, including ARIMA models, are employed to examine the impact of storms and potential cyclical influences on the shoreline dynamics. The findings indicate that significant storm events trigger a substantial retreat of the vegetation limit, followed by a slow recovery. Given the current frequency of such major events, complete recovery may take several decades, resulting in a minor influence of cyclones on the long-term erosion trend, which remains moderate. The short-term shoreline evolution is primarily driven by the annual cyclicity of the still water level, which generates an annual oscillation—an insight not previously reported. In the context of climate change, alterations to sea-level rise and cyclone frequency could disrupt the observed dynamic equilibrium at different timescales. Such changes could result in an alteration of existing cyclicities, disturbance of recovery periods, increased long-term shoreline retreat rates, and potentially affect overall coastal resilience over time.