Abstract
Abstract Our objective is to evaluate the potential for extracting the maximum information contained in antecedent temperature patterns that operationally could be used in formulating winter seasonal forecasts in the United States. In particular, examination of the predictability of winter temperatures given autumn temperatures is made using derived contingency tables, discriminant equations of antecedent principal components, and canonical correlation analysis. Contingency tables were constructed based on tercile classifications of a seventy-five year dependent record (1895–1969). Testing of an independent data period (1970–78) using these tables produced winter forecasts with no appreciable skill in the aggregate (−0.04). Discriminant analysis deprived linear combinations of the five principal components of the antecedent seasonal (autumn) temperatures to distinguish between specific terciles of the predictand season (winter). Despite encouraging results for the dependent period, forecast skill for the ...
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