Seasonal pumped hydropower storage role in responding to climate change impacts on the Brazilian electrical sector

Abstract

Since Brazil's major energy resources are renewable and directly related to climate factors, it is among the countries most likely of being affected by climate change. Given Brazil's high hydropower storage capacity and the strong seasonal patterns of its renewable resources, introducing Seasonal Pumped Hydropower Storage (SPHS) can help mitigate these challenges. To this end, a methodology is proposed that links the dynamic system-optimization model – MESSAGEix - to regional climate model simulations, called the Brazilian Electricity System MESSAGEix Model (BESMM). This model, with its detailed hydropower representation, is capable of integrating data from three climate change scenarios with the country's energy system. Climate change introduces a new dimension to this approach, as there is evidence of increasing the seasonal imbalance of variable renewable resources in Brazil. BESMM results suggest that SPHS can play a fundamental role in achieving a 100 % renewable matrix by 2100 in RCP 2.6 scenario, as well as enhancing the renewable energy endowment in scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. A reduction of up to 68 % of CO2 emissions is predicted in scenarios incorporating SPHS, compared to scenarios without SPHS.