Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific using teleconnection patterns

Abstract

This study has developed a multiple linear regression model for the seasonal prediction of the summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency (TCGF) in the western North Pacific using the three teleconnection patterns. These patterns are representative of the Siberian High Oscillation (SHO) in the East Asian continent, the North Pacific Oscillation in the North Pacific, and Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) near the Australia during the boreal spring (April–May). This statistical model is verified through the two analyses: (a) statistical method of cross validation and (b) differences between the high TCGF years and low TCGF years that is hindcasted by the statistical model. The high TCGF years are characterized by the following anomalous features: Three anomalous teleconnection patterns such as anticyclonic circulation (positive SHO phase) in the East Asian continent, pressure pattern like “north-high and south-low” in the North Pacific, and cyclonic circulation (negative AAO phase) near the Australia were strengthened during the period from boreal spring to boreal summer. Thus, anomalous trade winds in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) were weakened by anomalous cyclonic circulations that located in the subtropical western Pacific (SWP) in both hemispheres. In consequence, this spatial distribution of anomalous pressure pattern suppressed convection in the TWP but strengthened convection in the SWP.