Seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool in the NCEP CFS

Abstract

[1] The July–August–September (JAS) seasonal predictability of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP) is examined in the extensive set of seasonal hindcasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS). We conduct both deterministic and probabilistic skill analyses of the NCEP CFS Seasonal Hindcasts (SHs). This study reveals that the SHs have a reasonable climatology of the AWP. The presence of robust decadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) observations, while absent in the SHs, does seem to indicate its influence on the seasonal errors of the AWP in the NCEP CFS. However, after filtering out the observed SST for variability greater than 8 years, there is no systematic relation of AWP seasonal errors in the NCEP CFS with lead time. The signal to noise ratio of the area of the AWP in the SHs decreases with lead time, largely due to increases in the ensemble spread (noise). It is sobering to note that there is barely any probabilistic skill in the NCEP CFS SHs for the prediction of the anomalous AWP events (occurring either in the upper or lower terciles) at nearly all lead times. However if we examine the SHs from 1981–1996, when the observed SST in the AWP region is in one uniform phase of the prevalent decadal variation, then the SHs display useful skill in the prediction of anomalously large AWP events at all lead times. Furthermore, these truncated SHs also show significant probabilistic skill in the prediction of small (lower tercile) and normal (middle tercile) AWP events up to a lead time of 1 month.