Abstract

Nutrient dynamics in lakes are determined by the external anthropogenic discharges and unobserved internal cycling processes. In this work, a decadal nutrient data set from the eutrophic Lake Taihu, China, revealed a strong seasonal pattern of nutrient concentration and limitation. A nutrient-driven dynamic eutrophication model based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework was established to quantify the relative contributions to temporal variations from external discharges and internal processes. Results showed that after years of efforts on nutrient reduction, external discharges were relatively small and fluctuated less between seasons compared to the internal processes. A quantitative relationship between monthly nutrient concentration and corresponding internal loading was observed. Lake sediment could transform from a source of phosphorus in overlying water in summer and autumn to a sink in winter and spring. Together with temporal variations in nitrification and denitrification, seasonal transformation from the limitation of phosphorus induced colimitation of nitrogen and phosphorus. Understanding the potential impact of internal nutrient cycling on a seasonal pattern of nutrient concentration and limitation, the growth of phytoplankton, and, possibly, phytoplankton community composition should be emphasized, given the change in the relative importance of external discharges and internal loading in the process of lake restoration.

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