Seasonal niche tracking of climate emerges at the population level in a migratory bird.

Ran Nathan,Shay Rotics,Nir Sapir,Wolfgang Fiedler,Martin Wikelski,Guillermo Fandos,Damaris Zurell,Michael Kaatz

doi:10.1098/rspb.2020.1799

Abstract

Seasonal animal migration is a widespread phenomenon. At the species level, it has been shown that many migratory animal species track similar climatic conditions throughout the year. However, it remains unclear whether such a niche tracking pattern is a direct consequence of individual behaviour or emerges at the population or species level through behavioural variability. Here, we estimated seasonal niche overlap and seasonal niche tracking at the individual and population level of central European white storks (Ciconia ciconia). We quantified niche tracking for both weather and climate conditions to control for the different spatio-temporal scales over which ecological processes may operate. Our results indicate that niche tracking is a bottom-up process. Individuals mainly track weather conditions while climatic niche tracking mainly emerges at the population level. This result may be partially explained by a high degree of intra- and inter-individual variation in niche overlap between seasons. Understanding how migratory individuals, populations and species respond to seasonal environments is key for anticipating the impacts of global environmental changes.

Highlights

Each year, billions of individuals move over vast distances on a seasonal basis [1], including mammals, birds, fish and insects [2,3]
With weather and climate, we considered four different environmental sets to analyse niche overlap: (i) all environmental variables, including temperature + precipitation + Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), (ii) temperature, (iii) precipitation and (iv) NDVI; this allowed us to examine the contribution of each variable to patterns of seasonal niche overlap
We found a similar pattern of comparably low seasonal niche overlap for climate, but larger overlap for weather

Summary

Introduction

Billions of individuals move over vast distances on a seasonal basis [1], including mammals, birds, fish and insects [2,3]. To account for the fact that ecological and environmental processes are scale-dependent (figure 1b), we estimate seasonal niche overlap and tracking both in terms of climate (long-term average over greater than 15 years) and weather data (defined as the fine-scale conditions over a short period; less than 20 days). We calculated Schoener’s D metric for all pairs of seasons, at the individual and at the population level, for weather and climate data, and for the three-dimensional environmental niche space as well as the three separate univariate niche axes. We fitted four models to partition the niche overlap variation for each ecological level ( population versus individual) and each environmental scale (climate versus weather), using the standardized niche overlap as a response variable and assuming Gaussian error distributions. We checked trace plots for adequate mixing and all autocorrelations were less than 0.1

Results

Discussion

Findings

33. Zurell D et al 2018 Home range size and resource