Seasonal mortality amongst UK occupational pension scheme members 2000–2016

Abstract

Abstract Mortality at older ages varies by season, increasing the uncertainty associated with modelling and projecting mortality at older ages and ultimately contributing to pension providers’ overall risk. As the population ages, it becomes more important to understand variations in seasonal mortality between pensioners and to identify those most vulnerable to seasonal mortality differences. Using data from the Self-Administered Pension Schemes mortality investigation of the Continuous Mortality Investigation of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, UK, this paper investigates variations in seasonal mortality amongst members of UK occupational pension schemes over the period 2000–2016. Results are also compared with the corresponding population of England and Wales. For the oldest age groups (80+), which are most affected by seasonality, females are more vulnerable to seasonal differences in mortality for each pensioner group relative to males. Following a long-term decline in the winter-summer mortality gap the gap increased over the period, particularly for female pensioners and dependants. Seasonality remains a feature of UK mortality at older ages and risk management for pension schemes should consider seasonality when analysing overall mortality experience.