Seasonal Hydrodynamic Forecasts of INM-CM5 Model for Estimation of the Start of the Birch Pollen Season

Abstract

The experimental seasonal forecasts of the INM-CM5 climate model were used as input data for the temperature-time phenological model of birch dusting. Within the framework of the joint model, a test technology was developed for seasonal forecasting of the timing of the beginning of birch dusting in the European territory of Russia. Verification of this technology on seasonal retrospective forecasts of the INM-CM5 model (1991–2019) showed an adequate reproduction of the birch dusting start dates calculated for the same period according to the ERA5 reanalysis. The mean systematic errors are ±2 days, and the spatial correlation coefficients are above +0.84. The forecasts of the date of dusting start in 2022, calculated from the experimental operational seasonal forecasts of the INM-CM5 model with a monthly lead-time and with a zero lead-time, are also evaluated. It is shown that the errors in forecasting the beginning of dusting are ±5–10 days, and the forecasts with a one-month lead-time have fewer errors. The obtained results allow us to conclude that the seasonal forecast of the surface temperature of the INM-CM5 model can be used as input information for the temperature-time phenological model for the operational forecast of the timing of the start of birch dusting in the European territory of Russia.