Seasonal Forecasts of Winter Temperature Improved by Higher‐Order Modes of Mean Sea Level Pressure Variability in the North Atlantic Sector

Abstract

AbstractThe variability of the sea level pressure in the North Atlantic sector is the most important driver of weather and climate in Europe. The main mode of this variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), explains up to 50% of the total variance. Other modes, known as the Scandinavian index, East Atlantic, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern, complement the variability of the sea level pressure, thereby influencing the European climate. It has been shown previously that a seasonal prediction system with enhanced winter NAO skill due to ensemble subsampling entails an improved prediction of the surface climate variables as well. Here, we show that a refined subselection procedure that accounts both for the NAO index and for the three additional modes of sea level pressure variability is able to further increase the prediction skill of wintertime mean sea level pressure, near‐surface temperature, and precipitation across Europe.