Abstract
A probabilistic crop forecast based on ensembles of crop model output estimates, presented here, offers an ensemble of possible realizations and probabilistic forecasts of green water components, crop yield and green water footprints (WFs) on seasonal scales for selected summer crops. The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production. Seasonal forecasting of crop water use indicators (evapotranspiration (ET), water productivity, green WF) and yield of rainfed summer crops (maize, spring barley and sunflower), was performed using the AquaCrop model and ensemble weather forecast, provided by The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast. The ensemble of estimates obtained was tested with observation-based simulations to assess the ability of seasonal weather forecasts to ensure that accuracy of the simulation results was the same as for those obtained using observed weather data. Best results are obtained for ensemble forecast for yield, ET, water productivity and green WF for sunflower in Novi Sad (Serbia) and maize in Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria) - average root mean square error (2006-2014) was <10% of observation-based values of selected variables. For variables yielding a probability distribution, capacity to reflect the distribution from which their outcomes will be drawn was tested using an Ignorance score. Average Ignorance score, for all locations, crops and variables varied from 1.49 (spring barley ET in Groß-Enzersdorf) to 3.35 (sunflower water productivity in Groß-Enzersdorf).
Highlights
There is no doubt that water shortages will contribute to the future global crisis of available resources
The present paper presents results of an ongoing study related to the application of ensemble forecasting concepts in crop production
The present paper presents further study results related to ensemble forecasting of green water components (GW), green water footprint (GWF) and crop yield of selected important summer crops in Austria and Serbia – grain maize, sunflower and spring barley
Summary
There is no doubt that water shortages will contribute to the future global crisis of available resources. Permanent drought risk in production regions and freshwater shortages impose an ultimate goal to provide data and tools for better assessment and management of water resources (WWAP 2015). An important step towards realizing this goal is the introduction of a water footprint (WF) concept (Hoekstra et al 2011). According to Ercin & Hoekstra (2012), climate change expected by 2050 will affect global agricultural production patterns and related WF of production and consumption but with highly different effects over regions. The global WF is expected to increase relative to the year 2000 according to all scenarios. WF changes of consumption per capita relative to 2000 in ESEE will follow the trends expected in South Asia, Arab countries and most of Africa, the most vulnerable regions. An example of dynamic forecasting of WFs based on the Markov chain with a 1-year time step until 2030 can be found in Feng et al (2016)
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