Seasonal factors, voter fatigue and the costs of voting

Abstract

The impact of voting costs upon voter turnout is examined using more than 4000 British local government by-elections occurring between 1983 and 1999. Such by-elections occur in virtually every week of the year providing an opportunity to study fluctuations in electoral turnout. The analysis not only notes that voter turnout is in general decline but also identifies a separate seasonal component that affects levels of electoral participation. By-election turnout peaks in the months March–June and is at its lowest during the winter months. Voter turnout appears to be related to varying times of sunset throughout the year, suggesting that a visit to the polling station is a variable cost. A second identifiable cost is associated with the frequency of voting. The study shows that, ceteris paribus, the less time that has elapsed between a by-election and the previous election the lower the turnout. Voter fatigue, therefore, has a measurable impact on turnout.