Seasonal differences in the spatial patterns of wildfire drivers and susceptibility in the southwest mountains of China

Abstract

Wildfires directly affect global ecosystem stability and severely threaten human life. The mountainous areas of Southwest China experience frequent wildfires. Mapping the susceptibility patterns and analyzing the drivers of wildfires are crucial for effective wildfire management, especially considering that the inclusion of seasonal dimensions will produce more dynamic results. Using Yunnan Province of China as a case study area, a method was attempted to distinguish dependable wildfires by season, while possible wildfire drivers were obtained and refined within seasons. The patterns of wildfire susceptibility in different seasons were modeled based on the Maxent and random forest models. Then, the spatial relationships between wildfire and potential drivers were analyzed integrating with GeoDetector to evaluate the variable importance of drivers and the marginal effect of drivers. The results showed that the two models effectively depicted each season's wildfire susceptibility. The susceptible wildfire areas in spring and winter are located throughout Yunnan Province, with anthropogenic factors being the most significant drivers. During the summer and autumn, wildfire risk areas are relatively concentrated, showing a trend of dominant drought-driven and humid conditions. The differences in wildfire drivers across seasons reflect the lagged effect of climate factors on wildfires, leading to significant discrepancies in the marginal effects of how seasonal drivers affect wildfires. The findings improve our understanding of the effects of the interseasonal variability of environmental variables on wildfires and promote the development of specific seasonal wildfire management strategies.