Abstract
The fine-scale insights of existing cropland trends and their nexus with agrometeorological parameters are of paramount importance in assessing future food security risks and analyzing adaptation options under climate change. This study has analyzed the seasonal cropland trends in the Indus River Plain (IRP), using multi-year remote sensing data. A combination of Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall test was used to quantify the existing cropland trends. A correlation analysis between enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and 9 agrometeorological parameters, derived from reanalysis and remote sensing data, was conducted to study the region’s cropland-climate nexus. The seasonal trend analysis revealed that more than 50% of cropland in IRP improved significantly from the year 2003 to 2018. The lower reaches of the IRP had the highest fraction of cropland, showing a significant decreasing trend during the study period. The nexus analysis showed a strong correlation of EVI with the evaporative stress index (ESI) during the water-stressed crop season. Simultaneously, it exhibited substantial nexus of EVI with actual evapotranspiration (AET) during high soil moisture crop season. Temperature and solar radiation had a negative linkage with EVI response. In contrast, a positive correlation of rainfall with EVI trends was spatially limited to the IRP’s upstream areas. The relative humidity had a spatially broad positive correlation with EVI compare to other direct climatic parameters. The study concluded that positive and sustainable growth in IRP croplands could be achieved through effective agriculture policies to address spatiotemporal AET anomalies.
Highlights
IntroductionThe cropland is a complex ecosystem that is subject to many biotic (diseases, pathogens, weeds, etc.) and abiotic (drought, salinity, waterlogging, etc.) stresses, as well as humaninduced land-use changes and environmental pollution
The cropland is a complex ecosystem that is subject to many biotic and abiotic stresses, as well as humaninduced land-use changes and environmental pollution
This study has demonstrated the effective use of satellite remote sensing and fine resolution climate reanalysis data to evaluate the regional cropland trends and identify its agrometeorological drivers
Summary
The cropland is a complex ecosystem that is subject to many biotic (diseases, pathogens, weeds, etc.) and abiotic (drought, salinity, waterlogging, etc.) stresses, as well as humaninduced land-use changes and environmental pollution. The negative impacts of climate change on crop productivity can be eased by adopting efficient strategies and making the cropping system more resilient towards extreme events [1]. Past studies have reported variable impacts of climate parameters on crop productivity subjected to land use patterns and geographic location [2,3,4]. Local-scale existing trends in cropland and its nexus with climate parameters are of extreme importance to layout efficient adaptation policies to limit climate change adversities on the cropping system. The free access to the remote sensing data with moderate spatial resolutions provided the developing countries a way to integrate local-scale ground information into their regional policymaking for better sustainability of the resources
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