Seasonal Climate Prediction for the Australian Sugar Industry Using Data Mining Techniques

Abstract

The ability to predict rainfall with adequate certainty and lead time is beneficial to both industry and public. Periods of high or low seasonal rainfall can have many follow on effects to agriculture, industry, public health and, water supply and management. In order to implement decisions, planning and management strategies to contend with these issues, the ability to predict seasonal rainfall quantities is of great importance (Klopper et al., 2006). Climate conditions are known to influence the cultivation of Sugarcane influencing planting, harvesting and milling (Muchow and Wood, 1996; Everingham et al., 2002; Jones and Everingham, 2005). Unforeseen climate events such as excessive rainfall, can adversely effect the agricultural practices related to Sugarcane cultivation. The Australian Sugarcane harvest period commences in May/June and aims to finish by November/December before the start of the rainy season (Everingham et al., 2002). The risk of excessive rainfall disrupting harvest operations is greatest towards the end of the sugarcane harvest period (Muchow and Wood, 1996; Everingham et al., 2002). Therefore, improved seasonal rainfall prediction during the October-December period is beneficial.