SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING AND THE RELEVANCE OF LOCAL KNOWLEDGE

Abstract

Seasonal climatic forecasting is one of the more promising experimental technologies now being developed to help mitigate the risks posed by climatic hazards for agricultural production in developing nations. However, numerous studies of traditional agricultural communities have shown that farmers already often manage climatic risk through traditional methods of climate prediction and ritual. This local knowledge may or may not accurately predict climatic events, but it characterizes the demand for climate information and indicates how new climate forecasts might be received. Based on ethnographic data, this paper describes traditional climate prediction methods of farmers in Tlaxcala, Mexico to illustrate the relevance of local climate knowledge for seasonal forecasting. [Key words: climate forecasting, agriculture, local knowledge, Mexico.]