Seasonal climate forecast can inform the European agricultural sector well in advance of harvesting

Andrej Ceglar,Andrea Toreti

doi:10.1038/s41612-021-00198-3

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts are a key component of sectoral climate services. Skill and reliability in predicting agro-climate indicators, co-designed with and for European wheat farmers, are here assessed. The main findings show how seasonal climate forecast provides useful information for decision-making processes in the European winter wheat-producing sector. Flowering time can be reliably predicted already at the beginning of the growing season in central and eastern Europe, thus supporting effective variety selection and timely planning of agro-management practices. The predictability of climate events relevant for winter wheat production is strongly dependent on the forecast initialization time as well as the nature of the event being predicted. Overall, regionally skillful and reliable predictions of drought events during the sensitive periods of wheat flowering and grain filling can be made already at the end of winter. On the contrary, predicting excessive wetness seems to be very challenging as no or very limited skill is estimated during the entire wheat growing season. Other approaches, e.g., linked to the use of large-scale atmospheric patterns, should be identified to enhance the predictability of those harmful events.

Highlights

Agricultural production has been increasingly exposed to unfavorable climate events and extremes in the last decades[1,2]
We provide a spatial assessment of seasonal forecast predictions at different stages of the winter wheat growing season, discuss the predictability of different types of climate events relevant for wheat farmers, and point to future opportunities linked to the increased lead time of skilful predictions
The findings of this study clearly indicate that seasonal climate forecast can be useful for decision making in the European wheatproducing sector

Summary

INTRODUCTION

Agricultural production has been increasingly exposed to unfavorable climate events and extremes in the last decades[1,2] Examples of such extremes are heat stress, drought, and excessive rainfall[3]. The assessment of the added value for decision making should be based on an integrated perspective, considering what will be made available to end-users, for instance in the form of a set of indicators addressing climate risks along the growing season. We provide a spatial assessment of seasonal forecast predictions at different stages of the winter wheat growing season, discuss the predictability of different types of climate events relevant for wheat farmers, and point to future opportunities linked to the increased lead time of skilful predictions

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

CODE AVAILABILITY