Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to estimate precipitation ( P), reference evapotranspiration (ET o), precipitation deficit (PD = P − ET o) and relative crop yield reduction (YR) for a generic crop under climate change conditions for three locations in Puerto Rico: Adjuntas, Mayagüez, and Lajas. Reference evapotranspiration was estimated by the Penman–Monteith method. Precipitation and temperature data were statistically downscaled and evaluated using the DOE/NCAR PCM global circulation model projections for the B1 (low), A2 (mid-high) and A1fi (high) emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Relative crop yield reduction was estimated from a water stress factor, which is a function of soil moisture content. Average soil moisture content for the three locations was determined by means of a simple water balance approach. Results from the analysis indicate that the rainy season will become wetter and the dry season will become drier. The 20-year average September precipitation excess (i.e., PD > 0) increased for all scenarios and locations from 121 to 321 mm between 2000 and 2090. Conversely, the 20-year average February precipitation deficit (i.e., PD < 0) changed from −27 to −77 mm between 2000 and 2090. The results suggest that additional water could be saved during the wet months to offset increased irrigation requirements during the dry months. The 20-year average relative crop yield reduction for all scenarios decreased on average from 12% to 6% between 2000 and 2090 during September, but increased on average from 51% to 64% during February. Information related to the components of the hydrologic water budget (i.e., actual evapotranspiration, surface runoff, aquifer recharge and soil moisture storage) is also presented. This study provides important information that may be useful for future water resource planning in Puerto Rico.