Abstract
The springtime dust events in Northeast Asia pose many economic, social, and health-related risks. Statistical models in the forecasting of seasonal dust events do not fully account for environmental variations in dust sources due to climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) recently developed the GloSea5-ADAM, a numerically based seasonal dust forecasting model, by incorporating the Asian Dust and Aerosol Model (ADAM)’s emission algorithm into Global Seasonal Forecasting Model version 5 (GloSea5). The performance of GloSea5 and GloSea5-ADAM in forecasting seasonal Asian dust events in source (China) and leeward (South Korea) regions was compared. The GloSea5-ADAM solved the limitations of GloSea5, which were mainly attributable to GloSea5′s low bare-soil fraction, and successfully simulated 2017 springtime dust emissions over Northeast Asia. The results show that GloSea5-ADAM’s 2017 and 2018 forecasts were consistent with surface PM10 mass concentrations observed in China and South Korea, while there was a large gap in 2019. This study shows that the geographical distribution and physical properties of soil in dust source regions are important. The GloSea5-ADAM model is only a temporary solution and is limited in its applicability to Northeast Asia; therefore, a globally applicable dust emission algorithm that considers a wide variety of soil properties must be developed.
Highlights
Strong winds in dry areas, such as deserts, can cause dust events [1]
This suggests that the bare soil fraction, which indicates the degree of surface aridity in Global Seasonal Forecasting Model version 5 (GloSea5), is a significant contributor to dust emission levels in
6a,b,c show scatter plots of surface PM10 mass concentrations observed in China and South Korea (Figure 3) versus PM10 mass concentrations simulated for spring 2017 using GloSea5, concentrations observed and concentrations simulated for spring 2017 using GloSea5, GloSea5-ADAM, and ADAM are similar like 0.51, 0.49, and 0.59, respectively, but GloSea5 rarely simulated for high concentration of PM10 in northeastern Asia region compared to ADAM and μ g m−3 for GloSea5, which are greater than those for GloSea5-ADAM (52.29 μ g m−3 and 77.34 μ g m−3)
Summary
Strong winds in dry areas, such as deserts, can cause dust events [1]. Dust events in Northeast. Asia frequently occur during spring [2,3,4], and as the dry areas of Eastern Mongolia and Manchuria expand, the frequency of Asian dust events in South Korea and Japan, which are located leeward of these dry areas, has increased [5]. To overcome the limitations of seasonal Asian dust forecasting based on regression models, KMA has recently developed the GloSea5-ADAM, which incorporates the dust emission algorithm from the Asian Dust and Aerosol Model (ADAM), KMA’s operational Asian dust event prediction model, Atmosphere 2020, 11, 526; doi:10.3390/atmos11050526 www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere. To overcome the limitations of seasonal Asian dust forecasting based on regression models, KMA has recently developed the GloSea5-ADAM, which incorporates the dust emission algorithm from the Asian Dust and Aerosol Model (ADAM), KMA’s operational Asian dust event prediction model, theSeasonal.
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