Abstract
ABSTRACT: The reliable sizing of reservoirs is a very important task of hydraulic engineering. Although many reservoirs throughout the world have been designed using Rippl's mass curves with historical inflow volumes at the dam site, this technique is now considered outdated. In this paper, synthetic series of monthly inflows are used as an alternative to historical inflow records. These synthetic series are generated from stochastic SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models. The analyzed data refer to the planned Almopeos Reservoir on the Almopeos River in Northern Greece with 19‐year monthly inflow series. The analysis of this study demonstrates the ability of SARIMA models, in conjunction with the adequate transformation, to forecast monthly inflows of one or more months ahead and generate synthetic series of monthly inflows that preserve the key statistics of the historical monthly inflows and their persistence Hurst coefficient K. The forecasted monthly inflows would be of help in evaluating the optimal real time reservoir operation policies and the generated synthetic series of monthly inflows can be used to provide a probabilistic framework for reservoir design and to cope with the situation where the design horizon of interest exceeds the length of the historical inflow record.
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