Seasonal and Spatial Variability of Atmospheric Emissions from Shipping along the Northern Sea Route

Nikolai Figenschau,Jinmei Lu

doi:10.3390/su14031359

Abstract

Large seasonal and spatial variabilities in Arctic shipping and its associated emissions are expected in the future, due to continuous sea ice decline. This study collected ship traffic data and the associated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter (PM), and black carbon (BC) along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2013. The aim is to analyze the seasonal and spatial variations in ship traffic and the associated emissions along the NSR. The potential factors for these variations are discussed. The results showed strong seasonal and spatial variations in ship traffic and the associated emissions. In winter and spring, the number of ships and the associated emissions were low and limited to the Barents Sea. In summer, they almost doubled and showed a clear eastward and northward expansion, covering most of the study area and forming trans-Arctic shipping lanes, which remained throughout the autumn. The spatial distribution of emissions was similar to that for ship traffic, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. SO2 and PM peaked one month prior to the others and exhibited relatively high emissions, especially along shipping lanes, which may be linked to the changes in ship and fuel types.

Highlights

Shipping along the Northern SeaArctic shipping is an emerging topic within the maritime transport sector, due to the gradual decline in sea ice and the consequent increase in accessible waters, which has raised the prospect of increasing Arctic shipping and the potential use of new transit routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR) [1]
A well-defined, shipping lane was observed in winter, stretching from the Kola Peninsula to the Gulf of Ob, hereafter referred to as the Kola–Ob lane
We investigated the seasonal and spatial distribution of shipping activity and the associated atmospheric emissions along the NSR and surrounding areas in 2013

Summary

Introduction

Shipping along the Northern SeaArctic shipping is an emerging topic within the maritime transport sector, due to the gradual decline in sea ice and the consequent increase in accessible waters, which has raised the prospect of increasing Arctic shipping and the potential use of new transit routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR) [1]. An increase in the total traveled distance and number of unique ships in the region has already been observed. By 2015, the total distance traveled by ships in the Canadian Arctic had tripled since the 1990s, while the total distance traveled in the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Arctic Polar Code area increased by 75% from 2013 to 2019 [2,3]. From 2010 to 2016, the number of unique vessels increased by 6.6% per year [4]. The growth in Arctic shipping activity is expected to continue in the future, due to the projected continuous sea ice loss [5,6,7,8]. Shipping is an important source of atmospheric emissions. From 2012 to 2018, shipping-related CO2 emissions in the IMO Arctic

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