Seasonal and Regional Variations in Rainfall Distribution Over the Punjab-Pakistan

Abstract

The purpose of present study is to investigate district and division wise annual rainfall variations over theprovince of Punjab, which is the largest in terms of population size as well important contributor in agricultural producein Pakistan. The results revealed that the rainfall trend has shifted from upper and lower Punjab towards the south,west, north and east respectively. The statistical analysis has inferred an overall increasing trend for the period 1990 to2000 and a decreasing trend during period 2001 to 2010 in Punjab province. The Z test value differences in the averagerainfall for each district level meteorological station have detected three increasing and two decreasing trends duringsummers of 1981-2015.The data revealed a significant changed seasonal trend observed in Murree and Sialkot(northern Punjab), Faisalabad and Lahore (central Punjab). Particularly, the changes have been observed in the southPunjab and over the central Punjab, while the same rainfall variations have shown a southward shift. The trend of therainfall had shifted in the Faisalabad division with the significant positive trend. In the Central Punjab, the positivetrend has also been found in all the districts. In the lower Punjab, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan districts has shown anincreasing trend of rainfall. The findings are significant in changing agro-climatic zones in the Punjab and consequentshifting patterns of agriculture therefore can have net impact on the food security situation in the Punjab-Pakistan.