Abstract
Rain fall trends all over the world with the attendant socio-economic effects have taken unprecedented dimensions in recent times. Trend studies of this atmospheric parameter will enable us examine the nature of variationand possible causative agents. Both seasonal and long term trends of rain fall in Calabar between 1985 and 2003 have been examined. Monthly and annual rainfall totals, number of rain days and extreme rain fall indices were determined as secondary data and used for the analyses. SPSS statistical package was used to deseasolnalise the data and determine its trend. Both raw data and deseasonalised data were used to examine long term trends and both show some level of increase in rainfall of about 1.9mm and 300mm respectively. The results also show that rainfall has highly pronounced season. The seasonality of all the parameters namely total rainfall, total extreme rainfall, total number of rain days and number of extreme rain days were all similar, with a slight break in the month of August. This break introduces a week or more of drought which is essential for crop production, drying and storage of agricultural products and their by- products
Highlights
The sudden increase in cases of flooding all over the world has been blamed on Climate change
Analyses of global circulation models suggest an increase in heavy rainfall and a decrease in light rainfall (Gordon et al, 1992, Haylock and Nicholls, 2000)
The results of this work show a slight departure from predicted global trends
Summary
The sudden increase in cases of flooding all over the world has been blamed on Climate change. In the tropics and monsoon areas of the world, the frequency and intensity of rainfall in a particular season results in seasonal floods (Okpiliya, et al, 2006). The study of rainfall distribution is important in rain harvesting, agricultural production especially plant production. The seasonality of rainfall invariably affects crop and animal production. Architectural designs, building and construction, field work and tourism, depend on the seasonality of rainfall. Rainfall intensities have a clear bearing on flooding, soil fertility and mineral circulation in the soil. The phenomenon of intense rainfall increases surface runoff which results in gully erosion-one of the largest ecological problems of the world. Data records published between1989 and 1996 by the National meteorological services, (NIMET) show that of all the state capitals in Nigeria rainfall is highest in Calabar, (NIMET, 2006)
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