Abstract

Search and detection of objects on the ocean surface is a challenging task due to the complexity of the drift dynamics and lack of known optimal solutions for the path of the search agents. This challenge was highlighted by the unsuccessful search for Malaysian Flight 370 (MH370) which disappeared on March 8, 2014. In this paper, we propose an improvement of a search algorithm rooted in the ergodic theory of dynamical systems which can accommodate complex geometries and uncertainties of the drifting search areas on the ocean surface. We illustrate the effectiveness of this algorithm in a computational replication of the conducted search for MH370. We compare the algorithms using many realizations with random initial positions, and analyze the influence of the stochastic drift on the search success. In comparison to conventional search methods, the proposed algorithm leads to an order of magnitude improvement in success rate over the time period of the actual search operation. Simulations of the proposed search control also indicate that the initial success rate of finding debris increases in the event of delayed search commencement. This is due to the existence of convergence zones in the search area which leads to local aggregation of debris in those zones and hence reduction of the effective size of the area to be searched.

Highlights

  • Search and detection of objects on the ocean surface is a challenging task due to the complexity of the drift dynamics and lack of known optimal solutions for the path of the search agents

  • To determine how much the uncertainty of the ocean surface velocity affects the success of the modified Dynamic Spectral Multi-scale Coverage (mDSMC) search, we perform simulations in which a random error term is added to the drift equation

  • The mDSMC algorithm is shown to be a viable and efficient algorithm for real-time planning of search operations in a dynamic and large environment such as ocean surface. This algorithm is based on a feasible formulation of the classic optimal search theory and is capable of addressing complex geometries with large uncertainty that arise in complex and unsteady environmental dynamics

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Summary

Introduction

Search and detection of objects on the ocean surface is a challenging task due to the complexity of the drift dynamics and lack of known optimal solutions for the path of the search agents. We propose a multi-agent motion control method called modified Dynamic Spectral Multi-scale Coverage (mDSMC), for search and detection of objects in dynamically evolving environments such as the ocean surface. The design of search agents’ path is a multi-agent control problem whose objective function involves the estimation of a time evolving probability distribution.

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