SEARCH (Scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling): a new method for scenario analysis with an application to the Videotel service in Italy

Abstract

After an exhaustive survey of the use (and abuse) of the term ‘scenario’ in recent literature, this paper provides an original method for scenario generation and analysis: scenario evaluation and analysis through repeated cross impact handling (SEARCH) reconciles and integrates deterministic instruments with probabilistic methodologies. Most of the scenarios that have been constructed in the literature have little relevance to studies of real strategic planning. In practice, they prove to be either too vague and qualitative to direct decision-making, or too specific and quantitative for application in the real world. SEARCH, on the other hand, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The inclusion of the quantitative central core methodology (cross impact analysis) inside a qualitative framework, ensures the consistence of the constructed scenarios and allows the planner to maintain contact with the general context of the problem as well as obtaining specific forecasts of future variables. As an application, we used the SEARCH methodology to build scenarios concerning Videotel, the Italian public videotex service, linking quantitative data to qualitative characteristics. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of experts working for SIP, the Italian public network carrier.