Search for Solar Sources of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Reverse Model of Magnetodynamic Interaction of the Solar Wind in the Heliosphere

Abstract

In the development and testing of methods for predicting interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), it is important to establish their relationship with sources on the Sun—coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by coronagraphs. The often used inverse ballistic calculation of the CME onset time does not consider variations in the CME speed when moving through the heliosphere and can give an uncertainty up to a day. With a good accuracy (on the order of ±10 h), the propagation of CMEs in the heliosphere from the Sun to the Earth is described by the model of the magnetodynamic interaction of CMEs with the background solar wind (drag-based model, DBM). In this paper, we propose to search for possible coronal sources of ICMEs, observed near the Earth, using the reverse model of magnetodynamic interaction (reverse DBM, RDBM), which reconstructs in the reverse course the probable propagation of CMEs in the heliosphere and determines their outflow parameters in the solar corona using the measured ICME parameters. The model uses the speed of the background solar wind, which is calculated from the area of coronal holes in the central part of the Sun and presented on the website of the Space Monitoring Data Center of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University (SINP MSU), with correction factors.