Search for optimal shipping routes in the Arctic seas

Abstract

A method for choosing optimal shipping routes and determining the conditions under which the Northern Sea Route can be used year-round is developed in the paper. The topic and purpose of the study are directly related to the tasks, the implementation of which is provided by the Development Plan of the Northern Sea Route, approved by the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation on August 1, 2022, confirmed by the financing program for the development and implementation of the digital board of the Northern Sea Route, approved by the Government in mid-January, 2023. The assessment of the current state of the network of shipping routes, navigation, hydrographic and hydro meteorological support, as well as the structure and composition of the Arctic icebreaker and transport fleet is given. The main factors affecting the implementation of the year-round navigation program in the eastern sector of the Arctic include severe ice conditions, unreliable forecasts of the ice situation, the lack of a sufficient number of icebreakers and transport vessels capable of overcoming thick ice fields in the Arctic shallow waters. Based on the results of the review of existing methods for determining safe and cost-effective shipping routes, the basic requirements for methods of choosing optimal routes in the waters of the Arctic seas have been developed. Using the method of multi-criteria evaluation of alternative routes according to a variety of safety criteria depending on the navigation period and the method of transport vessels navigation in ice is justified. A list of information necessary for implementation of the developed multi-criteria method for finding optimal routes and a list of the main stages of its implementation have been compiled. The results of testing the method of comparative evaluation of alternative routes using a set of simulation models are presented. Recommendations on the use of the developed method are given. The main directions of further research are determined.