Abstract
The availability of nearly three decades of sea-level estimates from satellite altimetry, for the period from 1993 to the present, is exploited for understanding the climatology of sea level and its long-term variability in the Arabian Gulf (also known as the Persian Gulf) in comparison with global oceans. The Arabian Gulf is characterized by a lower sea level from February to May and a higher sea level from September to December, with a maximum in November and a minimum in April. The variability of sea level in the Arabian Gulf is significantly different and nearly opposite to the pattern of sea-level changes in the adjacent marginal basin, the Red Sea. The analysis of low-passed sea level using the empirical orthogonal function and principal component analysis showed that the first mode of variability explains 87.9% of the long-term variability and the second mode explains nearly half of the remaining variability (5.6%). The linear long-term trends in sea level are 2.58 mm/year for the Northern Arabian Gulf and 3.14 mm/year for its southern part, with an average of 2.92 mm/year for the entire Gulf. The analysis of sea level in the Arabian Sea showed a faster rate of sea level rise in the post-2000 period. The long-term linear trend for the post-2000 period in the Northern Arabian Gulf is 4.06 mm/year, and in the southern Gulf it is 4.44 mm/year, with an average trend of 4.29 mm/year. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, the numerical projections show an expected rise in sea level in the Arabian Gulf by 8.1, 1.3, and 6.8 cm by 2050, and by 16.9, 17.7, 39.1 cm, respectively by the end of the 21st century.
Highlights
Sea level is one of the primary climate indicators which directly or indirectly impact a major portion of the world population, especially coastal communities in which one-third of the world’s population resides [1,2,3]
The results show that the fluctuations in sea level outside the Arabian Gulf gradually propagate into the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz as a “tongue” of a high or low level and moves towards the Northern Arabian Gulf
The results show that the sea level in the Arabian Gulf
Summary
Sea level is one of the primary climate indicators which directly or indirectly impact a major portion of the world population, especially coastal communities in which one-third of the world’s population resides [1,2,3]. In association with global warming and the melting of ice, sea-level rise is one of the major anticipated consequences of ongoing climate change and the resultant changes in ocean heat content [2,3]. The availability of satellite altimetry-derived sea-level estimates provided the opportunity of relatively long-term and, more importantly, continuous observation of sea-level changes for the oceanic region away from the coast all over the globe, which was previously limited to the tidal stations. This helped to a large extent in developing a detailed understanding of ocean dynamics globally, especially in remote areas.
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