Sea Level Rise Impact on Compound Coastal River Flood Risk in Klaipėda City (Baltic Coast, Lithuania)

Erika Čepienė,Lina Dailidytė,Edvinas Stonevičius,Inga Dailidienė

doi:10.3390/w14030414

Abstract

Due to climate change, extreme floods are projected to increase in the 21st century in Europe. As a result, flood risk and flood-related losses might increase. It is therefore essential to simulate potential floods not only relying on historical but also future projecting data. Such simulations can provide necessary information for the development of flood protection measures and spatial planning. This paper analyzes the risk of compound flooding in the Danė River under different river discharge and Klaipėda Strait water level probabilities. Additionally, we examine how a water level rise of 1 m in the Klaipėda Strait could impact Danė River floods in Klaipėda city. Flood extent was estimated with the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and visualized with ArcGIS Pro. Research results show that a rise in the water level in the Klaipėda Strait has a greater impact on the central part of Klaipėda city, while that of the maximum discharge rates of the river affected the northern upstream part of the analyzed river section. A sea level rise of 1 m could lead to an increase in areas affected by Danė floods by up to three times. Floods can cause significant damage to the infrastructure of Klaipėda port city, urbanized territories in the city center, and residential areas in the northern part of the city. Our results confirm that, in the long run, sea level rise will significantly impact the urban areas of the Klaipėda city situated near the Baltic Sea coast.

Highlights

Climate change has had a significant impact on water level changes on the southeast coast of the Baltic Sea and sea–lagoon water transitions zone conditions
The highest water level rise was recorded on 17 November 1967 and 4 December 1999, when storm and wind surges exceeded catastrophic water levels
They lead to compound floods caused by higher rainfall, increased river run-off, and the strong wind causing coast sea flooding, and by rising global water levels affected by climate change

Summary

Introduction

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Flood hazards and accurate economic risk assessments for the 21st century should not be limited to past floods or monitoring. To develop an accurate future flood risk assessment, it is necessary to assess all factors related to flood hazards in the context of climate change. The vulnerability of coastal river reaches is growing due to the increasing number of extreme hydrometeorological events caused by climate change [1,2,3,4,5]. The assessment of compound flooding with respect to climate change scenarios in coastal river reaches has become more relevant

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