Abstract
Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ∼65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.
Highlights
Coastal zones are ecologically rich, diverse and productive, but highly sensitive to changes in sea level (Wong et al, 2014; Oppenheimer et al, 2019)
Some decisions such as beach nourishment operate at a decadal timescale and are adjusted over time, e.g., adding more or less sand. These approaches can be adjusted to improved understanding as sea levels rise. Decisions such as building a nuclear power station or raising low-lying islands for urban development have long lead times, i.e., a century or more, and high risk aversion means there is strong interest in high-end sea-level rise (SLR) projections (e.g., Wilby et al, 2011; Brown et al, 2020): as the rate of SLR considered increases, the ability to protect may be overwhelmed for extreme cases linked to ice sheet collapse (Haasnoot et al, 2020)
This paper has considered how we can most effectively translate global understanding of sea level, including the major ice sheets and their uncertainties, to effective local climate services and coastal adaptation
Summary
Coastal zones (regions less than 10 m above mean sea level) are ecologically rich, diverse and productive, but highly sensitive to changes in sea level (Wong et al, 2014; Oppenheimer et al, 2019). These approaches can be adjusted to improved understanding as sea levels rise Decisions such as building a nuclear power station or raising low-lying islands for urban development have long lead times, i.e., a century or more, and high risk aversion means there is strong interest in high-end SLR projections (e.g., Wilby et al, 2011; Brown et al, 2020): as the rate of SLR considered increases, the ability to protect may be overwhelmed for extreme cases linked to ice sheet collapse (Haasnoot et al, 2020).
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