Abstract
The response of the Bay of Fundy and Gulf of Maine to large‐scale tidal power plants and future sea‐level rise is investigated using an established numerical tidal model. Free stream tidal turbines were simulated within the Bay of Fundy by implementing an additional bed friction term, Kt. The present‐day maximum tidal power output was determined to be 7.1 GW, and required Kt = 0.03. Extraction at this level would lead to large changes in the tidal amplitudes across the Gulf of Maine. With future SLR implemented, the energy available for extraction increases with 0.5–1 GW per m SLR. SLR simulations without tidal power extraction revealed that the response of the semidiurnal tides to SLR is highly dependent on how changes in sea level are implemented in the model. When extensive flood defenses are assumed at the present‐day coast line, the response to SLR is far larger than when land is allowed to (permanently) flood. For example, within the Bay of Fundy itself, the M2 amplitude increases with nearly 0.12 m per m SLR without flooding, but it changes with only 0.03 m per m SLR with flooding. We suggest that this is due to the flooding of land cells changing the resonant properties of the basin.
Highlights
[2] The tides of the Gulf of Maine (Figure 1) are some of the largest in the world with an observed tidal range of some 16 m in the Bay of Fundy due to resonance of the semidiurnal tides [e.g., Garrett, 1972]
sea-level rise (SLR) simulations without tidal power extraction revealed that the response of the semidiurnal tides to SLR is highly dependent on how changes in sea level are implemented in the model
Tide gauge data show that sea level in the Gulf of Maine has already risen some 30 cm between 1880 and 1980, but that the rate had dropped to 20 cm per century over the past 30 years [Greenberg et al, 2012]
Summary
[2] The tides of the Gulf of Maine (Figure 1) are some of the largest in the world with an observed tidal range of some 16 m in the Bay of Fundy due to resonance of the semidiurnal tides [e.g., Garrett, 1972]. Greenberg et al [2012] show that tidal high water is likely to PELLING AND GREEN: SLR AND TPP IN THE GULF OF MAINE significantly increase over the century, due to a combination of ice melt, thermal expansion, isostatic adjustment, and associated changes in the tidal dynamics They use a very sophisticated tidal model with a high resolution, unstructured grid, and included wetting and drying of intertidal areas. If permanent flooding of land is allowed on the European Shelf, the response of the tides to SLR is dramatically different compared to if vertical walls are introduced at the present-day coastline (referred to as ‘‘no flooding’’ by Pelling et al [2013]) This is because the newly flooded areas will have high tidal velocities due to their shallow water depth, and dissipate significant amounts of tidal energy due to bed friction. We look at relatively large levels of SLR and tidal power extraction to build worst-case scenarios rather than building the most realistic cases
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