Abstract
The ‘S-Curve’ phenomenon postulates that while cross correlation coefficients between past values of the trade balance and current exchange rate could be negative, the same cross-correlation between future values of the trade balance and current exchange rate could be positive. In this study, we test the S-Curve using bilateral trade data between Egypt and its two largest trading partners. We test the phenomenon for 36 industries (59 industries) that trade between Egypt and USA (Egypt and EU). Out of a total of 95 industries, we were able to support the S-Curve hypothesis in 20, mostly small, industries.
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