Screening of early prediction ultrasonic index for prognosis of severe hepatitis and its value evaluation

Abstract

Objective To select early prediction indexes related to the prognosis of severe hepatitis in ultrasonography,and evaluate its clinical value.Methods Clinical data of 269 cases of severe hepatitis patients was analyzed retrospectively.Cox proportional hazards regression model was adopted to analyze 13 possible prediction ultrasonic parameters for severe hepatitis,including thickness of the right hepatic lobe,portal vein (PV) diameter,volume of ascites,etc.After selected from these parameters,the clinical value of early prediction factor was evaluated with ROC curve.Results Multivariate analysis showed that thickness of the right hepatic lobe,portal vein (PV) diameter,opening of paraumbilical vein and bile viscosity were related to the death of severe hepatitis patients (P ＜ 0.05).The thickness of the right hepatic lobe contributed most (Wald =40.479),its sensitivity and specificity for prediction were 93.4％,82.8％ respectively(P ＜ 0.01).Conclusions Thickness of the right hepatic lobe,PV diameter,opening paraumbilical vein and bile viscosity are early prediction factors for severe hepatitis,need to be monitored in treatment,especially for thickness of the right hepatic lobe. Key words: Ultrasonography; Severe hepatitis; Prognosis ; Risk assessment