Abstract
Abstract Adjustments in the designs of water resources systems due to climate change and other nonstationarities are warranted because the benefits of effective adaptation are well recognized. Therefore, the time and resources invested in these analyses are well worth the effort. Before a major investment in an effort is made, however, it is reasonable to determine if the problem is of sufficient complexity or the value of additional information is high enough to warrant the inclusion of complex, sophisticated methods that explicitly include nonstationarity and associated decision-making under deep uncertainty. There exist several planning level conditions such as the lifetime of the project, its criticality, and its reversibility that may indicate detailed analysis is not needed. There are also sequential analysis and screening steps that can be applied to determine the complexity of the methodology needed. Finally, the use of decision analysis can also help determine if additional, detailed analysis, or data collection are necessary. The use of one or several of these methods should be considered as initial steps before undertaking a vulnerability assessment and developing an adaptation strategy for a water resources system.
Highlights
It is widely recognized that all human and natural systems are sensitive to climate; as the climate changes, the services provided by these systems change
Since climate change will result in more threats to water resources and coastal systems than opportunities, here we only focus upon managing the threats though, similar analysis could be applied to capturing any limited opportunities associated with climate change
Before a major investment in an effort is made, it is reasonable to determine if the problem is of sufficient complexity or the value of additional information is high enough to warrant the inclusion of complex, sophisticated methods that explicitly include nonstationarity and associated decision-making under deep uncertainty
Summary
It is widely recognized that all human and natural systems are sensitive to climate; as the climate changes, the services provided by these systems change. Some rely upon determining if a system is operating below capacity and/or its historical performance, assessing the climate sensitivity of the needs of stakeholders, and changes in the design conditions. Project lifetime If an asset is not threatened and, based upon a preliminary analysis of the more extreme range of climate change threats, will never be impacted over the planning horizon, a detailed nonstationarity analysis is not needed.
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