Abstract
(1) Background: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is an important cause of mortality in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, with screening of high-risk groups recommended in all major international guidelines. Our understanding of the risk factors involved has improved over time, encouraging researchers to develop models that predict future risk of HCC development. (2) Methods: A literature search of the PubMed database was carried out to identify studies that derive or validate models predicting HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B. Subsequently, a second literature search was carried out to explore the potential role of novel viral biomarkers in this field. (3) Results: To date, a total of 23 models have been developed predicting future HCC risk, of which 12 have been derived from cohorts of treatment-naïve individuals. Most models have been developed in Asian populations (n = 20), with a smaller number in Caucasian cohorts (n = 3). All of the models demonstrate satisfactory performance in their original derivation cohorts, but many lack external validation. In recent studies, novel viral biomarkers have demonstrated utility in predicting HCC risk in patients with chronic hepatitis B, amongst both treated and treatment-naïve patients. (4) Conclusion: Several models have been developed to predict the risk of HCC development in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, but many have not been externally validated outside of the Asian population. Further research is needed to refine these models and facilitate a more tailored HCC surveillance programme in the future.
Highlights
MethodsA literature search of the PubMed database was carried out to identify studies that derive or validate models predicting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with chronic hepatitis B
Received: 8 June 2021Accepted: 6 July 2021Published: 10 July 2021Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This article is an open access articleDespite the availability of a highly effective vaccine for many decades, chronic hepatitisB remains a global health challenge
In a study performed by Mak et al exploring a treatmentnaïve population with spontaneous hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion, the authors demonstrated that median Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) levels at baseline, at 5 years and 10 years after HBeAg seroconversion were significantly higher in patients who developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) compared to those who did not (p < 0.001)
Summary
A literature search of the PubMed database was carried out to identify studies that derive or validate models predicting HCC development in patients with chronic hepatitis B. (3) Results: To date, a total of 23 models have been developed predicting future HCC risk, of which 12 have been derived from cohorts of treatment-naïve individuals. Most models have been developed in Asian populations (n = 20), with a smaller number in Caucasian cohorts (n = 3). All of the models demonstrate satisfactory performance in their original derivation cohorts, but many lack external validation. Novel viral biomarkers have demonstrated utility in predicting. (4) Conclusion: Several models have been developed to predict the risk of HCC development in individuals with chronic hepatitis B infection, but many have not been externally validated outside of the Asian population.
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