Screening Algorithm for BK Virus-Associated Nephropathy Using Sequential Testing of Urinary Cytology: A Probabilistic Model Analysis

Abstract

Background: Incorporating urinary cytology in BK virus (BKV) screening algorithm potentially reduces the screening cost for BK viral nephropathy. We aimed to evaluate the test performances and screening cost of sequential 2-stage screening consisting of urine cytology followed by BKV serum quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Methods: Ninety-five kidney transplant recipients who had BKV serum quantitative PCR/urine cytology tested and verified with histopathology (the reference gold standard) were included. A probabilistic model was constructed to evaluate the test performance and screening cost of 2-stage screening, and was compared with screening with urine cytology or serum viral load alone. Results: At a viral load threshold of ≥10⁴ copies/ml, the sensitivity and specificity of quantitative PCR alone were 83% (95% CI 69-96) and 91% (95% CI 83-97), respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of urine cytology alone were 91% (95% CI 79-100) and 74% (95% CI 60-91), respectively. Sequential 2-stage screening resulted in loss in sensitivity but a net gain in specificity (viral load threshold ≥10⁴ copies/ml - sensitivity, 75% (95% CI 60-91); specificity, 98% (95% CI 95-99)). Two-stage screening also had superior positive predictive value and is cost effective when BKV-associated nephropathy prevalence is below 94%. Conclusions: Our study had demonstrated a favorable test performance and cost efficiency of 2-stage BKV screening.