Screening 3 years after negative test, rather than annually, would result in three additional cases of cervical cancer per 100,000 women screened

Abstract

Question How many additional cervical cancers would occur if annual screening reduced to screening 3 years after the last negative test? Study design Outcomes analysis with Markov model using screening programme data. Main results Among 32,230 women with ⩾3 consecutive negative tests, none had cancer; 16 had grade 2 or three cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Among 938,576 women with no prior tests, 511 women had cancer. Cases were more common in women in whom fewer negative tests were performed. The model predicted that screening 3 years after the last negative test, rather than annually, would lead to five extra cases of cervical cancer in a cohort of 100,000 women aged under 30 years. Three extra cases among women aged 30–44 years, one extra case among women aged 45–59, and no additional cases among women aged 60–64, were predicted. Authors’ conclusions An average of three additional cases of cervical cancer per 100,000 is predicted if women between 30 and 64 years are screened 3 years after their last negative test, rather than annually for 3 years.