Scotland as an Independent Small State: Where would it seek shelter?

Alyson J.K Bailes,Baldur Þórhallsson,Rachael Lorna Johnstone

doi:10.13177/irpa.a.2013.9.1.1

Abstract

A planned referendum in 2014 on Scottish independence gives cause to examine that scenario in the light of small state studies and recent European experience. One of the best-supported assumptions in small state literature is that small countries need to form alliances and seek protection from larger neighboring states and/or international institutions. Small European states have generally sought shelter from the European Union (EU) and NATO. This study confirms that an independent Scotland would need strategic, political, economic and societal shelter, and could look for the various elements within existing European institutions, from its closest southern and northern neightbours, and from the US. However, protection may come with a certain cost - just as union with another entity does at present.

Highlights

Since the end of the Cold War in 1989 the Euro-Atlantic area has seen many new small states spring into existence, notably but with the break-up of former Yugoslavia and of the former Soviet Union
Vital (1967) claimed that when small states seek to offset their weaknesses by association or alliance with other states, ‘a price must normally be paid in terms of sacrifice of autonomy in the control of national resources and loss of freedom or political maneuver and choice’ (Vital 1967, 5)
Under all three headings so far, we have found that good ‘shelter’ solutions for Scotland depend not least on coming to terms with the remaining UK (rUK)

Summary

Introduction

Since the end of the Cold War in 1989 the Euro-Atlantic area has seen many new small states spring into existence, notably but with the break-up of former Yugoslavia and of the former Soviet Union. This article is not about whether Scotland will, or should, vote for independence in 2014 It is written from an international relations standpoint and makes only the necessary minimum of references to Scottish or British internal affairs, including such important aspects of the independence question as taxation and economic viability. Instead it looks at the Scottish case in the light of small state theory, and of the concept that posits such states’ need for strategic, political, economic and societal shelter.

Small States and shelter

Scotland’s path and current status

Issues and options under the independence scenario

Findings

Summary and reflections