Abstract
In their recent paper, Muir et al. (Science, 2015, 348, 1135-1138) demonstrate that the maximum depths of staghorn coral assemblages are shallower at higher latitudes, a trend that correlates with winter light levels. Based on these findings, the authors hypothesize that light availability limits the current latitudinal extent of the group and will constrain future range expansion. Here we reanalyze their data and show that depth-latitude relationships vary substantially among species, and that most species show either no significant pattern or the opposite pattern. In so doing, our reanalysis highlights a common misinterpretation of mixed-effects models: the fallacy of the average. Our findings are also consistent with fossil and contemporary observations of coral range-shifts. The factors that limit the current range extent of corals remain elusive, but they are likely speciesspecific and will require much further research to elucidate.
Highlights
Muir et al (2015) demonstrate that the maximum depths of staghorn coral assemblages are shallower at higher latitudes, a trend that correlates with winter light levels
Recent work suggests that the leading range edges of marine species that have responded to climate change have shifted poleward at a mean velocity of 72.0 ± 13.5 km per decade (Poloczanska et al 2013), which is an order of magnitude faster than for terrestrial species (6.1 ± 2.4 km per decade; Parmesan and Yohe 2003)
Latitudinal diversity patterns in scleractinian corals are characterized by a tropical plateau today, but during the warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the last interglacial period (LIG) they were characterized by a pronounced equatorial trough as species distributions shifted away from the equator along trailing edge margins, while simultaneously expanding poleward along their leading edge margins (Kiessling et al 2012)
Summary
In a recent paper, Muir et al (2015) demonstrate that the maximum depths of staghorn coral assemblages are shallower at higher latitudes, a trend that correlates with winter light levels. J. Madin et al — species specific latitudinal extension of reef corals
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