Scope and Limits of Predictions by Social Dynamic Models: Crisis, Innovation, Decision Making

Abstract

Models of social dynamics grew up from methods used on the physical and life sciences. Different types of growth processes, among others those which lead to finite time singularities are reviewed. The scope and limits of the analogy between neurological disorders (such as epilepsy) and financial crises are analyzed by exploiting the concept of dynamical diseases. Governing rules of social dynamics phenomena can be extracted from collected empirical data, and they have some predictive power. Data for evolving patent citation networks, and annual budget changes are analyzed for generating dynamical models.