Abstract
An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity
Highlights
The world’s biodiversity continues to diminish as human populations and activities expand [1,2,3,4]
Opportunities to meet the need for ecosystem risk assessment are supported by emerging theories on ecosystem dynamics and function [15,16,17], methods for handling uncertainty [18,19], ecosystem-specific measures of ecological change [20,21,22] and developing temporal data sets on ecosystem distribution and processes [23,24]
We describe the conceptual model for assessing risks of ecosystem collapse, and justify the construction of risk assessment criteria with reference to relevant ecological theory
Summary
The world’s biodiversity continues to diminish as human populations and activities expand [1,2,3,4]. Despite the strengths and widespread acceptance of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species [10], the need for biodiversity assessments that address higher levels of biological organisation has long been recognised [11,12]. This need is reflected in the emergence of recent national and regional listings of ecosystems, communities and habitats [13], and recent resolutions by the World Conservation Congress to develop quantitative criteria for assessing ecosystems [14]. Opportunities to meet the need for ecosystem risk assessment are supported by emerging theories on ecosystem dynamics and function [15,16,17], methods for handling uncertainty [18,19], ecosystem-specific measures of ecological change [20,21,22] and developing temporal data sets on ecosystem distribution and processes [23,24]
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