Scientific challenges in thermosphere-ionosphere forecasting – conclusions from the October 2014 NASA JPL community workshop

Abstract

Interest in forecasting space weather in the thermosphere and ionosphere (T-I) led to a community workshop held at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in October, 2014. The workshop focus was “Scientific Challenges in Thermosphere-Ionosphere Forecasting” to emphasize that forecasting presumes a sufficiently advanced state of scientific knowledge, yet one that is still evolving. The purpose of the workshop, and this topical issue that arose from the workshop, was to discuss research frontiers that will lead to improved space weather forecasts. Three areas are discussed in some detail in this paper: (1) the role of lower atmosphere forcing in the response of the T-I to geomagnetic disturbances; (2) the significant deposition of energy at polar latitudes during geomagnetic disturbances; and (3) recent developments in understanding the propagation of coronal mass ejections through the heliosphere and prospects for forecasting the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) using observations at the Lagrangian L5 point. We describe other research presented at the workshop that appears in the topical issue. The possibility of establishing a “positive feedback loop” where improved scientific knowledge leads to improved forecasts is described (Siscoe 2006, Space Weather , 4 , S01003; Mannucci 2012, Space Weather , 10 , S07003).