Abstract
Interest in forecasting space weather in the thermosphere and ionosphere (T-I) led to a community workshop held at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in October, 2014. The workshop focus was “Scientific Challenges in Thermosphere-Ionosphere Forecasting” to emphasize that forecasting presumes a sufficiently advanced state of scientific knowledge, yet one that is still evolving. The purpose of the workshop, and this topical issue that arose from the workshop, was to discuss research frontiers that will lead to improved space weather forecasts. Three areas are discussed in some detail in this paper: (1) the role of lower atmosphere forcing in the response of the T-I to geomagnetic disturbances; (2) the significant deposition of energy at polar latitudes during geomagnetic disturbances; and (3) recent developments in understanding the propagation of coronal mass ejections through the heliosphere and prospects for forecasting the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) using observations at the Lagrangian L5 point. We describe other research presented at the workshop that appears in the topical issue. The possibility of establishing a “positive feedback loop” where improved scientific knowledge leads to improved forecasts is described (Siscoe 2006, Space Weather , 4 , S01003; Mannucci 2012, Space Weather , 10 , S07003).
Highlights
Three areas are discussed in some detail in this paper: (1) the role of lower atmosphere forcing in the response of the thermosphere and ionosphere (T-I) to geomagnetic disturbances; (2) the significant deposition of energy at polar latitudes during geomagnetic disturbances; and (3) recent developments in understanding the propagation of coronal mass ejections through the heliosphere and prospects for forecasting the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) using observations at the Lagrangian L5 point
Numerous areas are ripe for continued scientific exploration that are relevant to forecasting, we discuss the following three frontier science areas: (1) the role of lower atmosphere forcing in modifying the response to geomagnetic storms; (2) the location of energy deposition from the solar wind/magnetosphere; and (3) the possibility of forecasting Bz at Earth, a widely recognized need that is beginning to be addressed with concerted theoretical and observational approaches
The scientific problems unique to space weather forecasts with lead times of a few days are best addressed in the context of performing such forecasts
Summary
A central tenet of space weather is that scientific understanding can be achieved ‘‘sufficient for prediction’’ of space weather related phenomena (OFCM 2010). The possibility that scientific knowledge enables prediction of natural phenomena is a widely held opinion, certainly considered valid in the meteorological realm (Kalnay 2002). It is reasonable to expect that as scientific knowledge increases, prediction accuracy will generally increase . Addressing scientific challenges to better understand the thermosphere-ionosphere system has both scientific and practical benefits. This paper addresses a subset of scientific topics that, if better understood, will likely lead to improved forecasts of Earth’s upper atmosphere – the thermosphere and ionosphere. We discuss three scientific focus areas where progress will lead to improved prediction, that represent scientific forefront areas. We conclude with a summary and suggestions for future research directions
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