Scientific and Technological Uncertainty in Quantitative Assessment and Policy Analysis

Abstract

Scientific and technological uncertainty is common to most quantitative assessment and policy analysis that involves problems in technology and public policy. In my three lectures at the NATO Advanced Studies Institute and in this summary paper, my primary concern is with the questions of how, and to what extent, one should characterize and deal with such uncertainty. Of course, these questions are normative in nature and their resolution requires some elaboration of the objectives that are to be served by quantitative policy analysis. In other writings, I have detailed a variety of substance-focused, process-focused, and analyst-focused motivations that can, in varying situations, underlie the commissioning, execution, and use of quantitative assessment and policy analysis (1.2). The interesting feature of these motivations is that despite their diversity it is possible to extract from them a single set of desiderata to characterize “good” risk assessment and other quantitative policy analysis. These are shown in Exhibit 1. Of course, people operating with different motivations are likely to have somewhat different views about the relative importance that should be attached to these different desiderata (2).