Science Through Machine Learning: Quantification of Post‐Storm Thermospheric Cooling

Abstract

AbstractMachine learning (ML) models are universal function approximators and—if used correctly—can summarize the information content of observational data sets in a functional form for scientific and engineering applications. A benefit to ML over parametric models is that there are no a priori assumptions about particular basis functions which can potentially limit the phenomena that can be modeled. In this work, we develop ML models on three data sets: the Space Environment Technologies High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) density database, a spatiotemporally matched data set of outputs from the Jacchia‐Bowman 2008 Empirical Thermospheric Density Model (JB2008), and an accelerometer‐derived density data set from CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP). These ML models are compared to the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar (NRLMSIS 2.0) model to study the presence of post‐storm cooling in the middle‐thermosphere. We find that both NRLMSIS 2.0 and JB2008‐ML do not account for post‐storm cooling and consequently perform poorly in periods following strong geomagnetic storms (e.g., the 2003 Halloween storms). Conversely, HASDM‐ML and CHAMP‐ML do show evidence of post‐storm cooling indicating that this phenomenon is present in the original data sets. Results show that density reductions up to 40% can occur 1–3 days post‐storm depending on the location and strength of the storm.