Abstract
Simple numerical estimates are developed in order to quantify a variety of energy economics issues. The Verhulst equation, which considers the effect of finite resources on petroleum production, is modified to take into account supply and demand economics. Numerical and analytical solutions to these differential equations are presented in terms of supply and demand elasticity functions, various finite resources, and the rate of increase in fuel costs. The indirect cost per barrel of imported oil from OPEC is shown to be about the same as the direct cost. These effects, as well as those of discounted benefits and deregulation, are used in a calculation of payback periods for various energy conserving devices. A phenomenological model for market penetration is developed along with the factors for future energy growth rates. A brief analysis of the economic returns of the ’’house doctor’’ program to reprofit houses for energy conservation is presented.
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