Abstract

In this paper, we analyse a large, opportunistic dataset of responses (N = 219,826) to online, diagnostic multiple-choice mathematics questions, provided by 6–16-year-old UK school mathematics students (N = 7302). For each response, students were invited to indicate on a 5-point Likert-type scale how confident they were that their response was correct. Using demographic data available from the online platform, we examine the relationships between confidence and facility (the proportion of questions correct), as well as gender, age and socioeconomic disadvantage. We found a positive correlation between student confidence and mean facility, higher confidence for boys than for girls and lower confidence for students classified as socioeconomically disadvantaged, even after accounting for facility. We found that confidence was lower for older students, and this was particularly marked across the primary to secondary school transition. An important feature of the online platform used is that, when students answer a question incorrectly, they are presented with an analogous question about 3 weeks later. We exploited this feature to obtain the first evidence in an authentic school mathematics context for the hypercorrection effect (Butterfield & Metcalfe J EXP PSYCHOL 27:1491–1494, 2001), which is the observation that errors made with higher confidence are more likely to be corrected. These findings have implications for classroom practices that have the potential to support more effective and efficient learning of mathematics.

Highlights

  • The importance of school students’ confidence in their learning of mathematics has been increasingly recognised in recent years (e.g., Foster, 2016, 2021; Hannula, 2014)

  • We found the first evidence for the hypercorrection effect in an authentic mathematics learning context. 5.1 The relationship between confidence and other variables Previous research has shown that confidence is lower for girls, for older students and for students characterised as socioeconomically disadvantaged (e.g., Ganley & Lubienski, 2016; Mullis et al, 2020; OECD, 2013, 2019)

  • Students’ confidence in the responses that they give to mathematics questions gives insight into an important aspect of their learning of mathematics (Barton, 2020; Foster, 2016, 2021)

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Summary

Introduction

The importance of school students’ confidence in their learning of mathematics has been increasingly recognised in recent years (e.g., Foster, 2016, 2021; Hannula, 2014). The focus for this study is on a fine-grained notion of confidence, corresponding to a student’s post hoc judgment on the probability that the answer that they have just given is correct (see Bandura, 1977; Foster, 2016, 2021; Stankov et al, 2012). We see this understanding of confidence as being situated within broader notions of “mathematics confidence” (Burton, 2004; Galbraith & Haines, 1998; Pierce & Stacey, 2004) that relate to positive feelings about mathematics in general and studying mathematics in particular (see Fennema & Sherman, 1976; Lim & Chapman, 2013). Whether students feel confident about their learning of mathematics or not affects whether they find learning mathematics in school a happy or an unhappy experience (Foster, 2016; Hannula, 2014; Morsanyi et al, 2019), influences their success in this critical gatekeeping subject and predicts their future career choices (Franz-Odendaal et al, 2020; Paulsen & Betz, 2004)

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