Abstract
Abstract. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted schools to close in 2020, and with its negative impact on the quality of learning, the conversation shifts to the re-opening scenarios. In this study, we coupled a COVID-19 agent-based model (ABM) with social contact probabilities from pre-pandemic estimates. We then simulated school re-opening and vaccination scenarios in Quezon City, Philippines using our ABM. Our toy simulations suggest that the city could already re-open schools with 50% vaccination coverage. However, we suggest that students shall be vaccinated first, mask-wearing and physical distance shall be strictly observed, and schools shall only be re-opened by 25% as a precaution. Policymakers may take insights from the study.
Highlights
In the Philippines, schools have closed since March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit
With the threat of COVID-19 to life and of school closure to students’ future, we ask: Should we already re-open schools? This study explores this question by simulating school reopening scenarios, vaccination scenarios, and the combination, using a COVID-19 agent-based model coupled with contact probabilities designed for Quezon City, Philippines, a coronavirus hotspot
We developed a COVID-19 agent-based model (ABM) for Quezon City, Philippines
Summary
In the Philippines, schools have closed since March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. This closure may result in longterm losses, warned the Asian Development Bank (2021) in an earlier report, projecting a $180-worth annual income decline with the quality of training the students are getting via distance learning. It remains that the pandemic is a threat to life. With the threat of COVID-19 to life and of school closure to students’ future, we ask: Should we already re-open schools? This study explores this question by simulating school reopening scenarios, vaccination scenarios, and the combination, using a COVID-19 agent-based model coupled with contact probabilities designed for Quezon City, Philippines, a coronavirus hotspot With the threat of COVID-19 to life and of school closure to students’ future, we ask: Should we already re-open schools? This study explores this question by simulating school reopening scenarios, vaccination scenarios, and the combination, using a COVID-19 agent-based model coupled with contact probabilities designed for Quezon City, Philippines, a coronavirus hotspot
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