Abstract
Operating schools safely during the COVID-19 pandemic requires a balance between health risks and the need for in-person learning. Using demographic and epidemiological data between 31 July and 23 November 2020 from Toronto, Canada, we developed a compartmental transmission model with age, household and setting structure to study the impact of schools reopening in September 2020. The model simulates transmission in the home, community and schools, accounting for differences in infectiousness between adults and children, and accounting for work-from-home and virtual learning. While we found a slight increase in infections among adults (2.2%) and children (4.5%) within the first eight weeks of school reopening, transmission in schools was not the key driver of the virus resurgence in autumn 2020. Rather, it was community spread that determined the outbreak trajectory, primarily due to increases in contact rates among adults in the community after school reopening. Analyses of cross-infection among households, communities and schools revealed that home transmission is crucial for epidemic progression and safely operating schools, while the degree of in-person attendance has a larger impact than other control measures in schools. This study suggests that safe school reopening requires the strict maintenance of public health measures in the community.
Highlights
Education has been severely disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic
Our results show that opening schools increases case numbers in both adults and children and youth (C&Y) populations compared with schools remaining closed
Our novel method of modelling COVID-19 transmission dynamics takes into account age structure and household transmission, allowing us to examine risks within and between households, communities and schools, and to explore whether the school reopening was responsible for the autumn 2020 virus resurgence in Toronto
Summary
Education has been severely disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The epidemic was controlled in spring 2020 by restrictive measures such as travel bans and closures of non-essential businesses and educational establishments. By mid-April 2020, 94% of learners worldwide were affected by the pandemic, representing 1.58 billion children and youth (C&Y), from pre-primary to higher education, in 200 countries [1]. School closures may help control the epidemic [2], they result in significant detrimental effects, including affecting children’s learning and mental health, placing a high burden on the parents and reducing economic productivity [3]. Policymakers worldwide have had to make difficult decisions about whether and how to reopen schools over the past several months. There has been no easy answer or single standard [4]
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